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                <text>HIST 27/127 Cold War Spring 2026</text>
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              <text>OIR Contribution to NIE 100-6-57: Nuclear Weapons Production by Fourth Countries - Likelihood and Consequences [Brazil Section]</text>
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              <text>Sonnenfeldt, Helmut. Division of Research for USSR and Eastern Europe, Department of State. </text>
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              <text>Armament</text>
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              <text>This recently declassified, lengthy report was INR's contribution to the first National Intelligence Estimate on the nuclear proliferation, NIE 100-6-57, which the bureau itself had requested in late April 1957. Written at a time when the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom were the only nuclear weapons states, the "Fourth Country" problem referred to the probability that some unspecified country, whether France or China, was likely to be the next nuclear weapons state.&#13;
&#13;
Among the Latin American countries, Brazil was the only one which could produce nuclear weapons within 10 years but only "with substantial and continuing outside assistance." Nevertheless, Brazil had "evidenced no desire to develop an atomic war potential," and that was unlikely to change in the near future.</text>
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              <text>1957-06-04</text>
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              <text>Fourth Country Likelihood</text>
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              <text>&#13;
Record Group 59. Department of State Records, Special Assistant to the Secretary of State for Atomic Energy, Records Relating to Disarmament, 1948-1962, box 57, 2 15d: Armaments Nuclear Fourth Countries, 1956-57. Retrieved form the National Security Archive hosted by George Washington University. &#13;
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Source link: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/21687-document-1 </text>
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              <text>You may copy, reproduce and distribute materials from this site pursuant to this nonexclusive, limited license, provided that: &#13;
&#13;
You maintain all copyright, trademark or other proprietary notices contained in any site content in the course of any use of such content. Copyright is not claimed as to any work of the United States government.&#13;
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You may not edit or otherwise change the substance of the content in any reproduction, publication, distribution, or transfer of an article or section of the Web site that is credited to the National Security Archive, except that you may excerpt portions of the content with credit to the author, where applicable, and the National Security Archive.</text>
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