OIR Contribution to NIE 100-6-57: Nuclear Weapons Production by Fourth Countries - Likelihood and Consequences [Brazil Section]

OIR Contribution to NIE 100-6-57: Nuclear Weapons Production by Fourth Countries - Likelihood and Consequences [Brazil Section]

Sonnenfeldt, Helmut. Division of Research for USSR and Eastern Europe, Department of State.

Armament

Atomic Energy

Brazil

This recently declassified, lengthy report was INR's contribution to the first National Intelligence Estimate on the nuclear proliferation, NIE 100-6-57, which the bureau itself had requested in late April 1957. Written at a time when the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom were the only nuclear weapons states, the "Fourth Country" problem referred to the probability that some unspecified country, whether France or China, was likely to be the next nuclear weapons state.

Among the Latin American countries, Brazil was the only one which could produce nuclear weapons within 10 years but only "with substantial and continuing outside assistance." Nevertheless, Brazil had "evidenced no desire to develop an atomic war potential," and that was unlikely to change in the near future.

National Security Archive

1957-06-04

Text

Paper

Fourth Country Likelihood

Record Group 59. Department of State Records, Special Assistant to the Secretary of State for Atomic Energy, Records Relating to Disarmament, 1948-1962, box 57, 2 15d: Armaments Nuclear Fourth Countries, 1956-57. Retrieved form the National Security Archive hosted by George Washington University.

Source link: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/21687-document-1

English

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